BOLDCONSULTINGTEAMMATES
Roe’s team has built out a vaunted grass-roots turnout program that is so respected by his rivals that even when internal polls show a toss-up, they fear they’re actually behind.
—Politico
HOW WE CAN HELP
- WEEK-TO-WEEK STRATEGY
- DAY-TO-DAY TACTICS
Keep the focus on Election Day, hosting weekly conference calls with the senior campaign team on strategic issues and developing solutions.
Facilitate relationships with top tier campaign talent and vendors, identify action items and establish accountability (if it isn’t written down, it won’t happen).
PROVEN AT EVERY LEVEL
From city councils to Congress to the Presidential primary, we’ve seen it all. And we hope to help you tell your story next
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ENGINEERING TED CRUZ'S HISTORIC IOWA VICTORY
THEGROUNDGAME
THE GAZETTE (IA) 12/27/15
Ted Cruz has assembled an impressive presidential campaign structure in Iowa, veteran political observers here say, with one going so far as to describe Cruz’s campaign as perhaps ‘the most sophisticated’ the first-in-the-nation caucus state has ever witnessed.
Chairs in 99 of 99 counties
Captains in 1,537 of 1,681 precincts
15K
volunteer calls per day
100K
doors knocked last 3 weeks
THE STAGE
ENTERING CAUCUS DAY, WE HAD…
221,552
live conversations with voters
114,432
voters' candidate preference ID'd
40,621
reliable Cruz supporters ID'd
9,131
voters ID'd as deciding bet. Cruz & Trump
USING OUR DATA
We tailored advertising in Iowa not only by a voter’s modeled or identified top issue, but by their personality type and by complex candidate preference segmentations. By Caucus Day, we had sent 44 mail pieces using 16 unique voter segments, such as…
Rubio Negative | Seg. #4
We sent negative mailers on Marco Rubio to voters who were considering Rubio and Cruz but not Trump, as we couldn’t afford to move voters from any candidate to Trump.
Values | Seg. #7
We sent mailers on national security to all voters but utilized different art depending what specifically about security their psychographic analysis showed to be most important.
Top Issue: IRS | Seg. #10
We sent positive mailers on Cruz’s plans regarding voters’ top issues, including abolishing the IRS.
CAUCUS RESULTS
51,666* Ted Cruz
45,427 Donald Trump
43,165 Marco Rubio
17,395 Ben Carson
8,481 Rand Paul
5,238 Jeb Bush
3,485 Carly Fiorina
12,017 Others
*More Than Any Candidate in Iowa GOP Caucus History
Ted Cruz ran the best campaign of any Republican politician in the 2016 primary.
—Washington Post
The Axiom team was proud to help Ted Cruz make history in Iowa, go on to win multiple key states on Super Tuesday, score a massive margin of victory in hard-fought Wisconsin and secure more delegates than any of the 17 Republican candidates except, of course, for President Trump.
BOLD MOVES & BIG THINKING IN THE YEAR'S NARROWEST WIN
In the final days of Martha McSally’s 2014 general election challenge against incumbent Democrat Congressman Ron Barber, we faced several unique hurdles.
CHALLENGES
- The highest total spending of any congressional race in the country
- No more advertising space available the entire week before the election
- Tracking showing a tight race, McSally just outside the margin of error
- Seemingly nothing we could do by any conventional means
With persuadable audiences saturated and conventional advertising tactics not available, we deployed an outside-the- box GOTV push.
ACTION TAKEN
- Advanced data analytics on low propensity (but Republican) voters
- GOTV mail blitz to GOP voters who could not be reached by ads
- Ground efforts to follow-up mail with door-knocking and phone calls
- Tested, proven “social pressure” initiatives to motivate turnout
THE OUTCOME
Republicans Turn Out & McSally Overcomes a Polling Deficit to Win by 167 Votes
| RCP POLLING AVG | ACTUAL RESULTS | ACTUAL VOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martha McSally (R) | 46% | 50.04% | 109,714 |
| Ron Barber (D) inc. | 48% | 49.96% | 109,547 |
| McSally Margin | -2% | +0.08% | +167 |
A CLOSER LOOK AT LOW PROPENSITY GOP TURNOUT
AZ-2 - MCSALLY
We were able to motivate over 50% of Republicans who typically would not vote in a midterm election to turn out for McSally.
STATEWIDE AZ
In Arizona’s eight other districts, this same set of Republicans turned out between 40% and 43%, or 42% on average.
Martha McSally won the closest race of the 2014 midterm election cycle after a protracted recount.
—The Hill
Studies show a strong turnout effort can swing a race by just a few percentage points. Well, those few points meant everything in 2014 for now-Congresswoman Martha McSally, who went on to coast to a double-digit 2016 victory in a district usually not friendly to Republicans in presidential years. We couldn’t be happier with the results we’ve achieved together.
OVERCOMING A SPENDING GAP WITH CREATIVE STRATEGY & EXECUTION
WRITTEN OFF
State Senator Glenn Grothman was not the first or even second choice of the establishment in the open-seat GOP primary in WI-6… probably because he tells it like it is. But everyone who met Glenn loved him.
We were written off early by the donor class, who favored fellow Senators Joe Leibham and Duey Stroebel, and thus underfunded. So, we needed to be smart about how to expend our limited resources.
HEAVILY OUTSPENT
Grothman was outspent more than 5-to-1 by Duey Stroebel and 3-to-1 by Joe Leibham.
$826,089 Duey Stroebel
$447,407 Joe Leibham
$147,639 Glenn Grothman
CREATIVE EXECUTION
Our opponents were blanketing the district, but their creative and messages were bland. Glenn was the most conservative candidate, and we ensured our bold creative would cut through the noise of the opposition in delivering that message.
DATA-DRIVEN STRATEGY
We also had to be strategic in our targeting. So, we relied on the large amounts of data we were able to gather through low-cost IVR programs to guide our resource allocation.
TWELVE DAYS BEFORE ELECTION DAY
With less than two weeks to go, we spotted something significant. Leibham and Stroebel had made waves in Sheboygan and Ozaukee counties with their big media spends. But Winnebago County, which made up 17% of the primary electorate and was where Glenn’s message was resonating, was relatively open.
PRIMARY VOTERS BY COUNTY
.18% SHEBOYGAN
.17% WINNEBAGO
.17% OZAUKEE
.14% FOND DU LAC
SHEBOYGAN & OZAUKEE
.33% GROTHMAN
.35% LIEBHAM
.18% STROEBEL
.14% UNDECIDED
WINNEBAGO
.30% GROTHMAN
.16% LIEBHAM
.21% STROEBEL
.33% UNDECIDED
No candidate had a particularly strong image in Winnebago and ballot tests (above) showed over a third of voters were undecided. We pounced, re-focusing our creative advertising there.
THE PAYOFF
Glenn carried Winnebago County by just 20 more votes than his district-wide margin of victory.
219
Grothman District Margin
239
Grothman Winnebago Margin